The 2026 Tour de France is shaping up to be a thrilling spectacle, with Tadej Pogačar in the lead and a week of brutal racing still to come. While Pogačar's dominance is undeniable, the final week promises to be a rollercoaster of unpredictability and drama. Here's why the upcoming days are crucial and what they could mean for the race.
The Pog Show Continues
Tadej Pogačar, the current leader, is on the cusp of cycling history. With Jonas Vingegaard's withdrawal, the yellow jersey is all but secured for Pogačar, who is just six racing days away from a record-tying fifth Tour de France victory. The question now is how greedy he wants to be in the final week. Pogačar already shares fourth place on the all-time Tour stage win list with André Leducq, and he's only three behind Bernard Hinault. The opportunity to add to his stage wins and break records is there for the taking.
The time trial on Tuesday could favor Remco Evenepoel, but Pogačar might also want to test his limits. Wednesday and Thursday could see breakaways, and the doubleheader stages at Alpe d'Huez on Friday and Saturday are a chance for Pogačar to add to his stage wins and further cement his legacy. The final stage in Paris, with its iconic Montmartre circuit, could be the perfect stage for Pogačar to make one last spectacular attack and claim the Tour de France.
The Podium Battle Explodes
Vingegaard's exit has created a vacuum at the top of the race, and the battle for second and third places is now the Tour's biggest race. Evenepoel, who inherited second place, is in a strong position, but he's not guaranteed a podium spot. The fight for the remaining podium positions is chaotic and unpredictable, with riders like Isaac del Toro, Florian Lipowitz, Paul Seixas, and Juan Ayuso all in the mix. Seixas, in particular, is a dark horse with nothing to lose, and he could surprise everyone with a podium finish.
Jersey Battles Still Unresolved
Pogačar's grip on the yellow jersey is secure, but the polka-dot jersey for the King of the Mountains is still up for grabs. Valentin Paret-Peintre has a chance to challenge Pogačar in the Alps, but it's unlikely. The green jersey for the points leader is also close to being decided, with Mads Pedersen holding a slender lead over Jasper Philipsen. The white jersey for the best young rider is a close battle between del Toro and Seixas, with Ayuso still in the mix.
Desperation Week Begins
The final week of the Tour de France is always a time of irrational tactics and desperate attacks. With only nine teams having won a stage so far, the pressure is on the remaining 14 teams to secure a stage win and justify their entire team budget for the year. The breakaways will be crucial, and the big breakaway in stage 13 could be a sign of things to come. The time trial on Tuesday could also see some surprise attacks, and the final stages in the Alps and Paris could be a time for the underdogs to shine.
Making it to Paris Still Matters
While Pogačar may already own this Tour de France, the final week belongs to everyone else. The race is too big and too prestigious for everyone to pull the plug early. The 166 riders still in the race have plenty on the line, from stage wins to helping teammates chase the general classification. Even the sprinters, who may never see another realistic opportunity this year, will drag themselves over the Alps simply because reaching Paris still means something. The final week is a time for the underdogs to shine, the breakaways to surprise, and the riders to make their mark on the race's history.
